Showing posts with label climate change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label climate change. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

A Different Kind Of Northern Invasion




     No, I’m not talking about the big rock concert coming in May to Wisconsin, this is something that we all see and feel as we walk out the door in the morning. The record setting cold that has gripped the eastern half of the country since around Christmas has caused the usual ‘hur, hur, where’s you’re global warming now, huh?’ posts on social media like Twitter, including from the Twit-In Chief.

     I could go on all day about the difference between weather and climate but sites like RealClimate do a fine job of explaining that but what I want to talk about is how climate change is making cold snaps like this sink even further south and stay longer. Simultaneously warm air from the temperate zone can infiltrate the arctic causing things like rain in Greenland and melting permafrost in Alaska.


     One consequence of climate change that is not in doubt is that the arctic is warming over 3 times faster than regions closer to the equator. As this difference becomes less the polar jet stream becomes weaker and allows the arctic air to invade. There are rivers of air in the atmosphere called jet streams that carry weather systems around the planet in a fairly regular linear pattern that keeps them within a certain band of latitude. Recent research from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers has predicted that these polar invasions will become even more frequent as the world warms.

     We had a similar pattern in 2009, I remember one day in January then where the temp in New Orleans was the same as Fairbanks, Alaska. Chaos is the rule of the day in weather now, and with more heat comes more chaos. I have been studying this for over 25 years and observing it even longer, the predictions made by Dr. James Hansen before Congress in 1988 are coming to pass.  Things are moving faster now with bigger disasters becoming more and more common. Also remember that these long lasting bends in the jet stream work the other way as well and we are going to see long lasting heatwaves in summer like Europe in 2017.

Monday, April 29, 2013

Blowing Past Four Hundred

Look at the little widget on the right side of the page, it measures atmospheric carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa in Hawaii where they have been monitoring the level continuously since the 1950's. It is now poised to go over 400 parts per million(ppm), a level not seen on earth in three million years. This should be front page news but because of the well funded merchants of doubt the general public still think there is a debate among scientists about what is the major forcing that is driving climate change.

CO2 is a greenhouse gas. That is simple physics and can be demonstrated by a smart sixth-grader. We have now gone from about 250ppm to 400 in only a hundred and fifty years, but some still think this has no affect on global temperatures. I've got some news for you deniers - nothing else fits the already observed warming EXCEPT forcing by carbon dioxide. If you can prove otherwise I'd love to see it because believe it or not - I WANT TO BE WRONG! I would love nothing better than to see some peer-reviewed science showing that we are not totally screwed as a civilization but right now the vast majority of papers I see point to ecological disaster right around the corner.

Shit, might as well drink a toast. To humanity! We had a good run but we are still just apes with guns.


Monday, March 4, 2013

David Frum Proved To Be An Idiot

I read this screed on CNN.com this morning and just shook my head. Frum has the entire peak oil theory wrong - it's not that we are running out of oil, we are running out of CHEAP oil. The key to remember is this equation: EROEI - Energy Returned over Energy Invested. In other words, how much energy does it take to get that barrel of oil out of the ground. The reason oil companies are drilling over a mile underwater and fracking every shale formation in sight is that the easy oil is almost gone. People are foolish to think that something like the Keystone XL pipeline can lower gas prices since oil is priced on a global market, and unless they want to nationalize the oil companies (SOSHULUZM!) oil prices here will reflect the global market. We are on the plateau now, if oil prices were to drop below about $ 70/bbl then the shale oil plays will no longer be profitable. Even if the optimists are right and we can find enough production in this hemisphere to become independent of middle eastern oil it will still not be cheap.

ETA: To read some much smarter people than me on the subject go here: http://www.theoildrum.com/